{"href":"https://api.simplecast.com/oembed?url=https%3A%2F%2Fnon-consensus-investing.simplecast.com%2Fepisodes%2Ffsd-midterms-experience-market-fit-FJi1_OYD","width":444,"version":"1.0","type":"rich","title":"FSD: Midterms Experience Market Fit","thumbnail_width":300,"thumbnail_url":"https://image.simplecastcdn.com/images/d685d316-5f8f-423b-b62c-820daec733ad/f31b2f30-b484-49d5-9aec-28ef36b992e8/invest-beyond-the-ordinary-2.jpg","thumbnail_height":300,"provider_url":"https://simplecast.com","provider_name":"Simplecast","html":"","height":200,"description":"Bank earnings, the midterm-year market pattern, and a new framework for thinking about AI: experience market fit.\n\nThe episode opens with what strong bank earnings say about the economy: record net interest income, solid loan growth, and improving credit quality. It covers why mortgage-sensitive banks lagged, why Goldman benefited from volatility and capital markets activity, and what consumer spending and card data show. It also digs into JPMorgan’s consumer bank, which earns a 36% return on equity and roughly doubles book value every two years.\n\nOn markets, it explains the four-year presidential cycle and the midterm-year pattern of narrow breadth and large-cap leadership. It also covers why sectors sold off on midterm fears (financials, data center, and defense) have historically reversed the year after, and how tax-loss harvesting can extend weakness.\n\nOn AI, it argues that product market fit is the wrong framework. The right one is experience market fit: meeting customers in their channel of choice (SMS, email, app) and building the relationship rather than the product. It uses Apple as the canonical example, looks at the land grab in AI personal assistants, and argues that go-to-market velocity and skill are the new moats. It also covers Meta’s new model and its puzzle-based training approach, Google’s push into video editing, Nvidia’s open-weight models and sovereign AI ambitions, and what to look for in a frontier lab’s S-1.\n\nIt closes on wealth management versus investment banking, with lessons from UBS, Morgan Stanley, and James Gorman, and why AI in financial services is a big opportunity for nimble players."}